The numbers that matter
Dice's 2026 Tech Sentiment Report surveyed 1,159 U.S. tech professionals in late 2025. The data paints a picture of a workforce in defensive mode — still moving, but no longer moving up.
The mobility-confidence gap. 74% plan to change employers in the next year, but only 41% believe they'll find something better. 55% are actively searching (up from 39% in 2024). 88% say employers hold the power. This isn't ambitious job-hopping — it's people trying to find safer ground while the ground shifts.
The market shrank below pre-COVID levels. Tech job postings sit at roughly 575,000 — below the 2019 baseline, and less than half the 2022 peak of 1.3 million. Companies overhired in 2021–2022, corrected through mass layoffs in 2023–2024, and now operate with permanently smaller teams.
Layoffs became normal. Only 34% of tech professionals remain untouched by layoffs (down from 56% in 2023). 22% have been personally laid off. 29% expect cuts at their current employer. Job stability jumped from the #7 to #2 reason for switching jobs.
Burnout doubled. 46% report burnout (up from 31% in 2024). Nearly a quarter say "very burned out" — roughly double prior years. 70% of those severely burned out are actively job searching.
The hiring pipeline is broken. 80% believe they applied to a ghost job. 52% applied for roles significantly below their skill level just to secure employment. The mechanics of finding work create friction independent of the supply problem.
The AI split
The report reveals a sharp divide between AI-adjacent professionals and everyone else:
AI professionals are more confident — 38% feel better about job stability vs. 21% of other tech workers. But they plan to switch employers at the same rate, suggesting even confidence doesn't mean comfort.
Perception depends on proximity. AI professionals split roughly evenly on whether AI creates or eliminates jobs. Among other tech professionals, 63% believe AI eliminates more jobs than it creates. The closer you are to building AI, the less threatened you feel by it.
Junior roles face the highest perceived displacement risk. 75% of respondents believe entry-level positions are most vulnerable. Extreme concern about skills becoming obsolete nearly doubles when people look 10 years out instead of 2.
Long-term optimism is eroding. Belief in tech's five-year growth dropped from 80% to 60%. Among non-AI tech professionals, it's even lower — just over half expect growth. Confidence in tech as a safe long-term bet is no longer automatic.
Where the demand is actually going
The Dice report includes granular market data from over 7 million U.S. tech job postings (via Lightcast). Some of the signals that matter most:
AI roles are exploding. Artificial Intelligence Engineer postings grew 208% year over year. Machine Learning Engineer +52%. Full Stack Engineer +26%. Meanwhile, traditional enterprise roles are contracting: Software Development Engineer -16%, Java Developer -4%, Business Systems Analyst -10%.
Skills tell the same story. Python (+18% volume), Microsoft Azure (+23%), Docker (+29%), and DevOps (+18%) are growing because they're the infrastructure AI runs on. Workflow Management surged 49% as companies operationalize AI into existing processes. JavaScript and Project Management both declined 4–6%.
The average tech salary is $126,848 (up ~$6,600 from 2024). But salary growth is uneven — it concentrates in AI-adjacent skills and high-growth metro areas like Austin (+23% posting volume), Columbus, OH (+16%), and San Francisco (+18%). Seattle is posting -7% volume despite being a legacy tech hub.
The practical takeaway: Employers are hiring for AI-adjacent skill combinations — Python + ML, Cloud + Automation — not isolated legacy skills. If you already have foundational programming or infrastructure experience, layering in AI tools or cloud platforms is the highest-leverage upskilling move right now.
What this means for your career strategy
This data validates something a lot of people are feeling but can't quite articulate: the old playbook (build skills → switch jobs → get a raise → repeat) stopped working, and nothing has clearly replaced it yet.
"Defensive repositioning" is the new normal. The report names it directly: what used to signal ambition now reflects survival strategy. If you're thinking about your next move in terms of stability rather than growth, you're not settling — you're reading the market correctly.
The task-level question is more urgent than ever. With 575K postings (down from 1.3M), competition for every role is intense. The differentiation isn't your title or years of experience — it's whether your actual task mix is the kind that companies still need humans for, even as they operate with permanently smaller teams.
Mid-career professionals carry the heaviest load. Burnout concentrates in workers with 10–19 years of experience, at small companies, worried about layoffs. If that's you, the data says you're not alone — and that understanding your structural leverage matters more now than at any point in the last decade.
The question Career Ladder is built to answer maps directly to this moment: given that teams are smaller, AI is embedded, and stability matters more than advancement — which parts of your specific work are worth defending, and which parts are quietly becoming optional?